GDP Data, Exit Polls & Market Reaction – What Moved Dalal Street

Today, May 30, the Indian stock market opened flat with a mixed bias as investors remained on edge ahead of two major events: the release of India’s Q4 GDP data and the final phase of Lok Sabha elections, followed by exit poll results expected late tonight.

Markets were choppy, showing signs of hesitation after a week of sustained gains.

 Market Snapshot – Intraday View

1. Q4 GDP Data Awaited at 5:30 PM

Investors are holding back on large bets ahead of today’s crucial GDP numbers. Economists expect Q4 GDP growth at around 6.8%, which could validate India’s tag as the fastest-growing major economy.

Stock Impact:

• Strong data could boost sectors like infrastructure, banking, and capital goods.

• Weak GDP may trigger sell-offs in cyclical stocks.

2. Exit Poll Results Tonight

With the final voting phase ending today, exit polls are expected to roll out after 6:30 PM. Political clarity is a major sentiment driver for both domestic investors and FIIs.

Bullish outcome? Expect a breakout above Nifty 25,100 next week.
Uncertainty or fractured mandate? Volatility will spike, especially in PSU and infra names.

Sectoral Performance Snapshot

• IT Stocks: Muted as global tech shows signs of correction.

• FMCG: Mild gains led by ITC and HUL, ahead of monsoon optimism.

• PSUs: Mixed response; stocks like BEL and BHEL traded flat after a strong week.

Expert View

“Today’s session is a classic example of pre-event consolidation. The market hates uncertainty, and with GDP and political triggers looming, traders are watching from the sidelines.”
– Rajat Mehta, Technical Analyst

 Today’s Key Current Affairs

1. India’s GDP Data (Q4 & FY25) – Scheduled at 5:30 PM

• Expected Q4 growth: 6.8%

• Expected FY25 annual GDP: 7.5%+

• Impact: Watch infra, banks, cement, and PSU stocks

2. Lok Sabha Final Phase Voting

• Today marks Phase 7 with polling across 57 constituencies.

• Exit poll results after 6:30 PM could create after-market volatility in SGX Nifty and futures.

3. India’s First AI-Powered Mutual Fund Launched

• Zerodha-backed firm launched an AI-powered fund focused on midcap momentum.

• Boosts confidence in India’s fintech and innovation space.

Market Technical View

• Nifty Support: 24,850

• Resistance: 25,100

• Bank Nifty Support: 53,700

• Volatility Index (VIX): Rising to 13.9 — expect wider swings next week

What Should You Do?

If GDP is strong & exit polls stable:

• Add to positions in L&T, SBI, BEL, Ultratech Cement

If GDP disappoints:

• Shift short-term focus to defensive sectors like FMCG & pharma

If political outcome surprises:

• Brace for volatility; consider hedging with index options

Final Word

Today was a pause. But this pause is the calm before the storm.

The twin impact of economic data and political direction will shape June’s first trading week. For long-term investors, these short-term jitters are opportunities in disguise.

Keep your eyes on the GDP numbers and poll trends — because June 2025 could be historic for Indian equities.